This past Monday, Tom “durrrr” Dwan and Daniel “jungleman12″ Cates put in their first session of the New Year for their ongoing online challenge. Jungleman12 managed to extend his lead substantially in the “Durrrr Challenge”, by taking $319,000 from the Team Full Tilt pro early into Tuesday morning.
An extended session which managed to make up for much of their near month-long departure from the challenge, saw 2,918 hands played and lasted over six hours in duration. Although in their last online session many viewers believed that Dwan was in the midst of an incredible comeback, many of those hopes were dashed after Cates again put even more pressure on Dwan late in that battle.
This time around, Cates jumped out to an incredible lead, after he cashed in big on a cooler for Dwan. As the challenge continues to display a tremendous amount of loose- aggression from both players, it was easy to anticipate the conclusion of the forthcoming hand. As stacks were very deep, in which both players were over 250 big-blinds, Dwan made a standard 3x raise with 
on the button. Cates three-bet to $4,800 from the big-blind with 
, and Dwan called. The flop fell 
with both players flopping flush draws, and Dwan also having outs to an inside straight draw. Cates led out for $5,200, which was called by Dwan. On the turn fell the 
, and although both players knew they intended to get their stacks all-in, for reasons of range-balancing and strategic game- planning, it was best to wait until the river. Cates then bet $16,800 on the turn, which was only called by Dwan; more than likely in order to provoke a thin value bet from Cates. Unfortunately however, Dwan was up against a better flush. The river was a meaningless 
, and on cue, Cates bet $43,600. Dwan then raised all-in to the tune of $81,453, which was insta-called by jungleman12. The pot came in as the largest of the challenge thus far, at an outstanding $216,505.
Overall, Dwan and Cates have played just over 17,000 hands, which is one-third of the challenge’s completion. They’ve played 15 sessions, with a staggering $113 million in total wagers.
Despite Cates control over much of the challenge, fellow poker player and friend of Dwan’s Phil Galfond certainly believes there’s still a lot of time for this match to turn around. While even he admitted that an $819,000 lead is definitely difficult to rally from, it’s not impossible he believes. Recently on Galfond’s poker radio web site PokerStatic, he commented on the possibility of a comeback for Dwan. “These players certainly play high variance enough where anything can happen,” said Galfond, as he vehemently analyzed each of the participants plays in his most recent Durrrr Challenge video. “Although Jungleman’s lead is substantial, it can definitely go very quickly.”
But despite Galfond’s beliefs, many other viewers and TwoPlusTwo poker regulars believe that Dwan’s volatile style thus far in the challenge is the cause of his less-than-stellar results. In the most general of terms, Dwan has been consistently putting himself in tough positions post-flop with many marginal hands, despite Dwan’s propensity for success with this strategy against most regulars of the game. Cates has adjusted extremely well to durrrr’s strategy thus far, mostly by erring on the side of normalcy. It may just be that Dwan plays far too many sub par holdings than most think can be profitable, and although many situations may look unavoidable after flopping strong, but lower-end two-pair type hands, many think they could be avoided by just tightening up pre-flop.
The outcome thus far may speak for itself, as Dwan has managed to get paid on average over $700 more per winning hand than his opponent, who’s win rate is at $1,700. But despite Dwan’s hand-deception most likely being the cause of his lead in that category, Cates has the edge overall by winning nearly 10,000 of the total 17,000+ hands in play. A big trade-off in terms of profitability, this fact has likely been the most glaring statistical evidence of Dwan’s downfall throughout the challenge. Cates has also been lucky (or maybe not lucky) enough to win eight of the 10 largest pots. This has also been the difference in being up $819K, or instead being down a colossal $822K.
But regardless of the current stats, only time will tell how this challenge will finish.
Stay tuned to High Stakes Report for more Durrrr Challenge 2 updates.
